Thursday, 13 January, 2022

Unemployment: why should we expect the worst in the months to come?

“I am worried about the job. This crisis is not a parenthesis, it will last. ”In mid-May, Muriel Pénicaud, the Minister of Labor, does not go all the way to describe the country’s economic slump. And the Pôle emploi figures for the month of April only confirm the fear of an unprecedented social crisis: the number of category A unemployed, those who did not work during the month, exploded by 22.6 %, or 843,000 more unemployed people. A sad record since 1996 which confirms the surge observed at the end of March after only two weeks of confinement (+246,100 category A unemployed). All age groups and all regions are hit hard, despite the very generous partial unemployment scheme put in place in March by the government to avoid disaster. “This very strong increase is explained by the non-renewal of short contracts such as those for temporary workers,” suggests Emmanuel Jessua, economist at Coe-Rexecode. It is the most precarious who are the first to pay the price for companies’ adjustment measures. At the same time, hiring is at a standstill so the number of people registered with Pôle Emploi is not decreasing. ”

A crisis twelve times faster than in 2008

Is this a foretaste of the difficult months ahead? Yes according to Yannick L’Horty, professor of economics at the University of Paris-Est-Marne-la-Vallée: “The moment of truth will be

the second trimester, he explains. The probability is great that the figures observed at the end of March are an alarming signal which foreshadows what will happen in April, May and June. ”An observation shared by Eric Heyer, director of the analysis and forecasting department of the French economic conjunctures observatory (OFCE): “What is striking about this crisis is its speed: it is twelve times faster than in 2008 , he notes. In addition, the situation of companies is not stabilized, which makes the risk of bankruptcy high. We would then enter a more traditional economic crisis which would lead to job destruction, an increase in unemployment and precautionary savings which slow down the resumption of consumption. ”This concern is also that of Medef, the leading employers’ organization, which fears a massacre in the coming months: “At first, companies drew in their cash to keep their heads above water, advance Patrick Martin, deputy chairman of MEDEF. But activity will restart slowly and many companies will not regain their pre-crisis profitability for a long time. This is why we must continue to support them to prevent a wave of bankruptcies and layoffs. ”This Thursday, May 28, the president of Medef, presented a battery of measures to get out of the crisis: lower production taxes, staggered reimbursement of charges or even a boost for the hiring of young people, a category particularly affected by stopping hiring.

An RSA for those under 25

On the union side, the CFDT wants the unemployment insurance rules to be “revised to deal with the exceptional situation so as not to leave anyone behind, especially young people who are the first victims,” ​​says Marylise Léon, number two of the CFDT. According to the Belleville plant, the government must definitely draw a line on its 2019 reform, which tightened the eligibility conditions. At the same time, the organization is also pushing for the RSA to be extended to at least 25 years, among those most affected by the crisis, in order to prevent an outbreak of precariousness in this age group.

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MEDEF CFDT Unemployment Employment center

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