Monday, 17 January, 2022

Unemployment: a trompe l’oeil improvement in the month of May

A slight encouraging rebound. According to Pôle Emploi, the number of category A job seekers, those who did not work during the month, fell in May by 149,000 (-3.3% compared to April). A good surprise which can be explained by the restarting of the economy after two months of stoppage:Deconfinement has automatically led to a resumption of employment in a number of sectors such as construction, shops, personal services, transport and logistics, ”comments the Ministry of Labor.

This sluggish resumption of the job machine is confirmed by data from Accoss, the body that manages social contributions: last month the number of declarations of hiring outside of temporary work for more than a month climbed by 75.9 %. Same story concerning the job offers published on the Pôle emploi site: their number is almost back to the pre-crisis level, being only 10% lower. However, a shadow on the table remains: employers prefer to procrastinate by resorting more to short fixed-term contracts, up 92% in May, than to permanent contracts which are increasing despite everything (+ 62%). A great classic in times of economic crisis which is breaking the good momentum of previous years: in 2019, the number of CDIs had risen sharply (+ 5.2%), pulling all hires

more than a month. This was the pride of the current government which saw in it the fruit of its reforms (ordinances on the Labor Code, apprenticeship, vocational training and unemployment insurance).

Read alsoThe employability CDI is emulated in the temporary employment sector

An explosion of unemployment during confinement

Despite everything, this does not erase the explosion in unemployment during the lockdown: in March and April, the number of job seekers increased by more than a million. A record never reached since 1996, which cancels the government’s good results – the measures taken had succeeded in reducing this figure by 300,000 since 2017. First victims of this unprecedented crisis: young people. The number of unemployed under 25 years old jumped to reach 659,000 at the end of April.

The government is also currently working on a major plan for young people which will be announced in the coming weeks. Another alarming point: “The average length of service of job seekers registered with Pôle emploi, so far 647 days, has increased by 13 days in one month, details Yannick L’Horty, professor of economics at Gustave University. -Eiffel. Ditto, the number of long-term unemployed has increased by 0.8 points. It is worrying because the more time you spend unemployed, the less chance you have of reinserting yourself into the labor market. “

A massacre at the start of the school year?

The worst is well ahead of us. “We are currently in the eye of the storm, comments Yannick L’Horty. Clearly, the good figures for May are perhaps only a zone of calm before major turbulence to come.”Certainly, the various emergency plans (partial activity, business aid measures, postponement of the new unemployment insurance rules to September, etc.) put the French economy on morphine, which cushioned the shock linked to confinement. But their effects should not prevent disaster: “The considerable aid net put in place by the government has made it possible to limit the damage, continues Yannick L’Horty. As proof, for the moment the increase in unemployment is not linked to waves of layoffs. But that shouldn’t be enough.”

An analysis shared by the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures (OFCE): business bankruptcies should jump 80% by the end of the year, which could cause the unemployment rate to jump to more than 12%. “In 2008-2009, the fall in gross domestic product was 2.9%, which resulted in the destruction of 500,000 jobs, recalls Yannick L’Horty. There in 2020, we expect a loss of GDP of minus 10%, which could destroy a million jobs. ” It will take a long time to get out of the crisis …

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