Wednesday, 19 January, 2022

Simon Cauchemez (Institut Pasteur): “Vaccination will quickly have an impact on hospitalizations”


The Institut Pasteur is publishing two studies on the Covid epidemic this Thursday, and is opening an online space dedicated to its models, so that the general public can access the quantified projections. The pilot of these projects, Simon Cauchemez, explains to Les Echos the cross-effects of the progression of variants and vaccination.

Researcher at the Institut Pasteur, Simon Cauchemez works on epidemiological models closely scrutinized by the government.

If it is showing signs of recovery, the epidemic first slowed down in the first half of February. Why didn’t we see it coming?

It is very difficult to anticipate the impact of health policy decisions on the dynamics of the epidemic. We must take into account the measure itself, the support of the population, the implementation … The first data on the curfew of January 16 showed that mobility had not decreased as much as during the curfew. October fire, which raised concerns. Then the epidemic stopped growing, and reached a plateau, demonstrating the effectiveness of the curfew in the last fortnight of January. Lately, we’ve even seen a drop in hospitalizations.

The Institut Pasteur is publishing two studies on the Covid epidemic this Thursday, and is opening an online space dedicated to its models, so that the general public can access the quantified projections. The pilot of these projects, Simon Cauchemez, explains to Les Echos the cross-effects of the progression of variants and vaccination.

Researcher at the Institut Pasteur, Simon Cauchemez works on epidemiological models closely scrutinized by the government.

If it is showing signs of recovery, the epidemic first slowed down in the first half of February. Why didn’t we see it coming?

It is very difficult to anticipate the impact of health policy decisions on the dynamics of the epidemic. We must take into account the measure itself, the support of the population, the implementation … The first data on the curfew of January 16 showed that mobility had not decreased as much as during the curfew. October fire, which raised concerns. Then the epidemic stopped growing, and reached a plateau, demonstrating the effectiveness of the curfew in the last fortnight of January. Lately, we’ve even seen a drop in hospitalizations.