Monday, 18 October, 2021

Covid: hospitals remain under pressure despite the decline in the epidemic


The second wave of the Covid epidemic has not subsided, with more than 33,000 hospitalized patients, but it is not expected to rise to 6,000 patients simultaneously in intensive care. The health situation is improving markedly in Paris, but remains tense in the south-eastern quarter of the country.

The decline will be slow in hospitals, because it will be necessary to reprogram suspended operations, and to keep patients instead of evacuating them.

“We have started the decline of the epidemic”. This Tuesday, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, on BFMTV and RMC, welcomed the fact that “Government measures” – November confinement, but also October curfews – “Work”. But the reopening of shops or places of worship is not yet topical, because “We are still in a phase of significant active circulation”, he insisted.

Read also:

For Olivier Véran, the “decrease in the epidemic” has started

In fact, the virus has been much less virulent for two weeks. On Monday, the positivity rate for Covid tests fell to 16.5%, from 21% a few days ago. The incidence which had approached 500 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants at the end of October is now at 284 per 100,000. As for admissions to hospital and critical care, they are decreasing day by day. As a result, the number of Covid patients in intensive care stabilizes around 4,900. However, the peak in hospitalizations has not yet been crossed, with more than 33,000 simultaneous Covid cases on Monday.

In this context, it is very unlikely that the resuscitation curve for Covid will rise to 7,000 beds occupied simultaneously – as expected in the event of containment failure – or even to 6,000 beds – the scenario of successful containment. Olivier Véran, however, defended himself from any alarmism on Tuesday. Including non-Covid patients, “To date we are around 8,300, 8,400 patients in intensive care, that is to say more than 140% of our initial capacities”, he explained.

Read also:

The situation of resuscitation services in the hospital deciphered in six key questions

A tray that settles down

“We are far from a totally green situation, it is a plateau that is settling in”, warned for his part the president of the Hospital Federation of France Frédéric Valletoux. “In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, in Hauts-de-France, in Ile-de-France, the levels of care are still high”, he detailed this Tuesday. Indeed, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, more than 7,000 people remained hospitalized on Monday, against 3,000 at the peak of April, with 860 people in intensive care on Sunday. In Hauts-de-France, hospitalizations for Covid climbed to 3,200, against 2,600 in the first wave. In Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the first bump was at 1,900, and the rebound at 3,300. Not to mention Occitania, which went from 1,000 to 2,200.

Conversely, the Île-de-France is in a much better position than in the spring, and can afford to welcome patients from other regions after having sent theirs elsewhere. From one wave to another, there are half as many hospitalized patients in the region (6,600 instead of 13,200 in April). The same goes for resuscitation cases. Above all, the number of Ile-de-France residents in intensive care seems to have reached a plateau, or even started a descent since the peak of November 12 (to 1,133 patients). The internal projections of the Public Assistance-Hospitals of Paris are now counting on a reflux (940 to 1,075 cases in intensive care this Saturday).

Even if the incidence is reduced in town, the decline in the hospital will be slow, however, warns the director general of the FHF, Zaynab Riet. Because if Covid beds become available, overflowing hospitals will be able to keep newcomers instead of organizing medical evacuations. And reschedule operations canceled in recent weeks. Hospital staff do not go to rest much at Christmas.

Read also:

DOSSIER Covid: the figures for the epidemic and the health response in France

DOSSIER> Reconfinement: what you need to know

Read also:

CAREGIVER’S STORY “The temptation to change air”

Two epidemic waves, two very different faces in France

The second wave of the Covid epidemic has not subsided, with more than 33,000 hospitalized patients, but it is not expected to rise to 6,000 patients simultaneously in intensive care. The health situation is improving markedly in Paris, but remains tense in the south-eastern quarter of the country.

The decline will be slow in hospitals, because it will be necessary to reprogram suspended operations, and to keep patients instead of evacuating them.

“We have started the decline of the epidemic”. This Tuesday, the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, on BFMTV and RMC, welcomed the fact that “Government measures” – November confinement, but also October curfews – “Work”. But the reopening of shops or places of worship is not yet topical, because “We are still in a phase of significant active circulation”, he insisted.

Read also:

For Olivier Véran, the “decrease in the epidemic” has started

In fact, the virus has been much less virulent for two weeks. On Monday, the positivity rate for Covid tests fell to 16.5%, from 21% a few days ago. The incidence which had approached 500 cases per week per 100,000 inhabitants at the end of October is now at 284 per 100,000. As for admissions to hospital and critical care, they are decreasing day by day. As a result, the number of Covid patients in intensive care stabilizes around 4,900. However, the peak in hospitalizations has not yet been crossed, with more than 33,000 simultaneous Covid cases on Monday.

In this context, it is very unlikely that the resuscitation curve for Covid will rise to 7,000 beds occupied simultaneously – as expected in the event of containment failure – or even to 6,000 beds – the scenario of successful containment. Olivier Véran, however, defended himself from any alarmism on Tuesday. Including non-Covid patients, “To date we are around 8,300, 8,400 patients in intensive care, that is to say more than 140% of our initial capacities”, he explained.

Read also:

The situation of resuscitation services in the hospital deciphered in six key questions

A tray that settles down

“We are far from a totally green situation, it is a plateau that is settling in”, warned for his part the president of the Hospital Federation of France Frédéric Valletoux. “In Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, in Hauts-de-France, in Ile-de-France, the levels of care are still high”, he detailed this Tuesday. Indeed, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, more than 7,000 people remained hospitalized on Monday, against 3,000 at the peak of April, with 860 people in intensive care on Sunday. In Hauts-de-France, hospitalizations for Covid climbed to 3,200, against 2,600 in the first wave. In Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur, the first bump was at 1,900, and the rebound at 3,300. Not to mention Occitania, which went from 1,000 to 2,200.

Conversely, the Île-de-France is in a much better position than in the spring, and can afford to welcome patients from other regions after having sent theirs elsewhere. From one wave to another, there are half as many hospitalized patients in the region (6,600 instead of 13,200 in April). The same goes for resuscitation cases. Above all, the number of Ile-de-France residents in intensive care seems to have reached a plateau, or even started a descent since the peak of November 12 (to 1,133 patients). The internal projections of the Public Assistance-Hospitals of Paris are now counting on a reflux (940 to 1,075 cases in intensive care this Saturday).

Even if the incidence is reduced in town, the decline in the hospital will be slow, however, warns the director general of the FHF, Zaynab Riet. Because if Covid beds become available, overflowing hospitals will be able to keep newcomers instead of organizing medical evacuations. And reschedule operations canceled in recent weeks. Hospital staff do not go to rest much at Christmas.

Read also:

DOSSIER Covid: the figures for the epidemic and the health response in France

DOSSIER> Reconfinement: what you need to know

Read also:

CAREGIVER’S STORY “The temptation to change air”

Two epidemic waves, two very different faces in France